Adam Button wins FXStreet's Person of the Year Forex Crunch

AUD/CAD Technical Analysis. Potential for a long term set up.

AUD/CAD's recently caught my attention, for a few reasons. Going to attempt some fundies, and then look at some tech for setups.
The Loonie
USOil, D1
http://i.imgur.com/AIUxB3f.png
Looks pretty bullish to me. Any serious crisis could spark a lot of volatility, pushing price through the 110 ceiling. It's unlikely, granted, but it's difficult to see a drastic fall in oil demand any time soon.
On the other hand, we have the Australian dollar
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m6y9Vz7b/
That's not a great chart, but you can clearly see what's happening there. Generally in a downward trending range, which looks rather overbought at the moment. A break to the upside would be extremely bullish for the Aussie, but that's not very likely given rumours of slowing demand from China and a declining gold price.
I know there are a few gold bugs lurking in this sub who are going to argue with me, but I'm pretty bearish on Gold as well.
So in a nutshell my bias could be summed up as neutral to bullish CAD, neutral to bearish AUD.
Here's the AUD/CAD daily:
http://i.imgur.com/y5acVLB.png
The top pink rectangle is an absolutely pivotal supply/demand area that has long since been breached. We're currently within a downward channel (much cleaner than AUD/USD's) after failing above the 50% retracement of the year's decline and an attempt to clear this zone.
The orange line is the 100 Month moving average, but don't get too excited - it hasn't done a great job of providing major support or resistance for as long as I have chart data.
The current channel, if it continues, will bring us very neatly to the rising line connecting the July 2010 and July 2013 lows, as well as a strong demand area, and roughly the 0.382 retracement of the move from 2010 to 2013.
This area is the last chance for bulls. At the point marked with a green circle on my chart I'll be watching price action very carefully. It might take a few days to play out, or it could happen very quickly, but price will probably give us an indication of where it will be heading in 2014 if it gets to that level.
There are two trades:
  1. A bounce. I prefer this from a technical perspective, but it doesn't align with my fundamental bias. I'll trade what I see though and if a spike low is formed around this area I will enter long with a stop below that spike, and targeting 0.9700, parity and 1.0500.
  2. A break of the 0.9250 area and retest and failure at this level opens up a lot of downside targets - noted in green as fibonacci extensions. If this happens, the challenge will be judging if there is sufficient volatility to give the move continuation, and finding a suitable level to trade against. Downside targets are 0.900, 0.8800 and 0.8600
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Adam Button at the London Stock Exchange From Good to Great in Fishing or Forex Trading ForexLive: FOMC preview Why the FX flash crash happened Why the old forex playbook doesn't work PANEL: US ELECTION + FOREX MARKET WITH MARTIN ARMSTRONG ...

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Adam Button at the London Stock Exchange

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