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Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts

Former investment bank FX trader: some thoughts
Hi guys,
I have been using reddit for years in my personal life (not trading!) and wanted to give something back in an area where i am an expert.
I worked at an investment bank for seven years and joined them as a graduate FX trader so have lots of professional experience, by which i mean I was trained and paid by a big institution to trade on their behalf. This is very different to being a full-time home trader, although that is not to discredit those guys, who can accumulate a good amount of experience/wisdom through self learning.
When I get time I'm going to write a mid-length posts on each topic for you guys along the lines of how i was trained. I guess there would be 15-20 topics in total so about 50-60 posts. Feel free to comment or ask questions.
The first topic is Risk Management and we'll cover it in three parts
Part I
  • Why it matters
  • Position sizing
  • Kelly
  • Using stops sensibly
  • Picking a clear level

Why it matters

The first rule of making money through trading is to ensure you do not lose money. Look at any serious hedge fund’s website and they’ll talk about their first priority being “preservation of investor capital.”
You have to keep it before you grow it.
Strangely, if you look at retail trading websites, for every one article on risk management there are probably fifty on trade selection. This is completely the wrong way around.
The great news is that this stuff is pretty simple and process-driven. Anyone can learn and follow best practices.
Seriously, avoiding mistakes is one of the most important things: there's not some holy grail system for finding winning trades, rather a routine and fairly boring set of processes that ensure that you are profitable, despite having plenty of losing trades alongside the winners.

Capital and position sizing

The first thing you have to know is how much capital you are working with. Let’s say you have $100,000 deposited. This is your maximum trading capital. Your trading capital is not the leveraged amount. It is the amount of money you have deposited and can withdraw or lose.
Position sizing is what ensures that a losing streak does not take you out of the market.
A rule of thumb is that one should risk no more than 2% of one’s account balance on an individual trade and no more than 8% of one’s account balance on a specific theme. We’ll look at why that’s a rule of thumb later. For now let’s just accept those numbers and look at examples.
So we have $100,000 in our account. And we wish to buy EURUSD. We should therefore not be risking more than 2% which $2,000.
We look at a technical chart and decide to leave a stop below the monthly low, which is 55 pips below market. We’ll come back to this in a bit. So what should our position size be?
We go to the calculator page, select Position Size and enter our details. There are many such calculators online - just google "Pip calculator".

https://preview.redd.it/y38zb666e5h51.jpg?width=1200&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=26e4fe569dc5c1f43ce4c746230c49b138691d14
So the appropriate size is a buy position of 363,636 EURUSD. If it reaches our stop level we know we’ll lose precisely $2,000 or 2% of our capital.
You should be using this calculator (or something similar) on every single trade so that you know your risk.
Now imagine that we have similar bets on EURJPY and EURGBP, which have also broken above moving averages. Clearly this EUR-momentum is a theme. If it works all three bets are likely to pay off. But if it goes wrong we are likely to lose on all three at once. We are going to look at this concept of correlation in more detail later.
The total amount of risk in our portfolio - if all of the trades on this EUR-momentum theme were to hit their stops - should not exceed $8,000 or 8% of total capital. This allows us to go big on themes we like without going bust when the theme does not work.
As we’ll see later, many traders only win on 40-60% of trades. So you have to accept losing trades will be common and ensure you size trades so they cannot ruin you.
Similarly, like poker players, we should risk more on trades we feel confident about and less on trades that seem less compelling. However, this should always be subject to overall position sizing constraints.
For example before you put on each trade you might rate the strength of your conviction in the trade and allocate a position size accordingly:

https://preview.redd.it/q2ea6rgae5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=4332cb8d0bbbc3d8db972c1f28e8189105393e5b
To keep yourself disciplined you should try to ensure that no more than one in twenty trades are graded exceptional and allocated 5% of account balance risk. It really should be a rare moment when all the stars align for you.
Notice that the nice thing about dealing in percentages is that it scales. Say you start out with $100,000 but end the year up 50% at $150,000. Now a 1% bet will risk $1,500 rather than $1,000. That makes sense as your capital has grown.
It is extremely common for retail accounts to blow-up by making only 4-5 losing trades because they are leveraged at 50:1 and have taken on far too large a position, relative to their account balance.
Consider that GBPUSD tends to move 1% each day. If you have an account balance of $10k then it would be crazy to take a position of $500k (50:1 leveraged). A 1% move on $500k is $5k.
Two perfectly regular down days in a row — or a single day’s move of 2% — and you will receive a margin call from the broker, have the account closed out, and have lost all your money.
Do not let this happen to you. Use position sizing discipline to protect yourself.

Kelly Criterion

If you’re wondering - why “about 2%” per trade? - that’s a fair question. Why not 0.5% or 10% or any other number?
The Kelly Criterion is a formula that was adapted for use in casinos. If you know the odds of winning and the expected pay-off, it tells you how much you should bet in each round.
This is harder than it sounds. Let’s say you could bet on a weighted coin flip, where it lands on heads 60% of the time and tails 40% of the time. The payout is $2 per $1 bet.
Well, absolutely you should bet. The odds are in your favour. But if you have, say, $100 it is less obvious how much you should bet to avoid ruin.
Say you bet $50, the odds that it could land on tails twice in a row are 16%. You could easily be out after the first two flips.
Equally, betting $1 is not going to maximise your advantage. The odds are 60/40 in your favour so only betting $1 is likely too conservative. The Kelly Criterion is a formula that produces the long-run optimal bet size, given the odds.
Applying the formula to forex trading looks like this:
Position size % = Winning trade % - ( (1- Winning trade %) / Risk-reward ratio
If you have recorded hundreds of trades in your journal - see next chapter - you can calculate what this outputs for you specifically.
If you don't have hundreds of trades then let’s assume some realistic defaults of Winning trade % being 30% and Risk-reward ratio being 3. The 3 implies your TP is 3x the distance of your stop from entry e.g. 300 pips take profit and 100 pips stop loss.
So that’s 0.3 - (1 - 0.3) / 3 = 6.6%.
Hold on a second. 6.6% of your account probably feels like a LOT to risk per trade.This is the main observation people have on Kelly: whilst it may optimise the long-run results it doesn’t take into account the pain of drawdowns. It is better thought of as the rational maximum limit. You needn’t go right up to the limit!
With a 30% winning trade ratio, the odds of you losing on four trades in a row is nearly one in four. That would result in a drawdown of nearly a quarter of your starting account balance. Could you really stomach that and put on the fifth trade, cool as ice? Most of us could not.
Accordingly people tend to reduce the bet size. For example, let’s say you know you would feel emotionally affected by losing 25% of your account.
Well, the simplest way is to divide the Kelly output by four. You have effectively hidden 75% of your account balance from Kelly and it is now optimised to avoid a total wipeout of just the 25% it can see.
This gives 6.6% / 4 = 1.65%. Of course different trading approaches and different risk appetites will provide different optimal bet sizes but as a rule of thumb something between 1-2% is appropriate for the style and risk appetite of most retail traders.
Incidentally be very wary of systems or traders who claim high winning trade % like 80%. Invariably these don’t pass a basic sense-check:
  • How many live trades have you done? Often they’ll have done only a handful of real trades and the rest are simulated backtests, which are overfitted. The model will soon die.
  • What is your risk-reward ratio on each trade? If you have a take profit $3 away and a stop loss $100 away, of course most trades will be winners. You will not be making money, however! In general most traders should trade smaller position sizes and less frequently than they do. If you are going to bias one way or the other, far better to start off too small.

How to use stop losses sensibly

Stop losses have a bad reputation amongst the retail community but are absolutely essential to risk management. No serious discretionary trader can operate without them.
A stop loss is a resting order, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price. For a recap on the various order types visit this chapter.
The valid concern with stop losses is that disreputable brokers look for a concentration of stops and then, when the market is close, whipsaw the price through the stop levels so that the clients ‘stop out’ and sell to the broker at a low rate before the market naturally comes back higher. This is referred to as ‘stop hunting’.
This would be extremely immoral behaviour and the way to guard against it is to use a highly reputable top-tier broker in a well regulated region such as the UK.
Why are stop losses so important? Well, there is no other way to manage risk with certainty.
You should always have a pre-determined stop loss before you put on a trade. Not having one is a recipe for disaster: you will find yourself emotionally attached to the trade as it goes against you and it will be extremely hard to cut the loss. This is a well known behavioural bias that we’ll explore in a later chapter.
Learning to take a loss and move on rationally is a key lesson for new traders.
A common mistake is to think of the market as a personal nemesis. The market, of course, is totally impersonal; it doesn’t care whether you make money or not.
Bruce Kovner, founder of the hedge fund Caxton Associates
There is an old saying amongst bank traders which is “losers average losers”.
It is tempting, having bought EURUSD and seeing it go lower, to buy more. Your average price will improve if you keep buying as it goes lower. If it was cheap before it must be a bargain now, right? Wrong.
Where does that end? Always have a pre-determined cut-off point which limits your risk. A level where you know the reason for the trade was proved ‘wrong’ ... and stick to it strictly. If you trade using discretion, use stops.

Picking a clear level

Where you leave your stop loss is key.
Typically traders will leave them at big technical levels such as recent highs or lows. For example if EURUSD is trading at 1.1250 and the recent month’s low is 1.1205 then leaving it just below at 1.1200 seems sensible.

If you were going long, just below the double bottom support zone seems like a sensible area to leave a stop
You want to give it a bit of breathing room as we know support zones often get challenged before the price rallies. This is because lots of traders identify the same zones. You won’t be the only one selling around 1.1200.
The “weak hands” who leave their sell stop order at exactly the level are likely to get taken out as the market tests the support. Those who leave it ten or fifteen pips below the level have more breathing room and will survive a quick test of the level before a resumed run-up.
Your timeframe and trading style clearly play a part. Here’s a candlestick chart (one candle is one day) for GBPUSD.

https://preview.redd.it/moyngdy4f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=91af88da00dd3a09e202880d8029b0ddf04fb802
If you are putting on a trend-following trade you expect to hold for weeks then you need to have a stop loss that can withstand the daily noise. Look at the downtrend on the chart. There were plenty of days in which the price rallied 60 pips or more during the wider downtrend.
So having a really tight stop of, say, 25 pips that gets chopped up in noisy short-term moves is not going to work for this kind of trade. You need to use a wider stop and take a smaller position size, determined by the stop level.
There are several tools you can use to help you estimate what is a safe distance and we’ll look at those in the next section.
There are of course exceptions. For example, if you are doing range-break style trading you might have a really tight stop, set just below the previous range high.

https://preview.redd.it/ygy0tko7f5h51.png?width=1200&format=png&auto=webp&s=34af49da61c911befdc0db26af66f6c313556c81
Clearly then where you set stops will depend on your trading style as well as your holding horizons and the volatility of each instrument.
Here are some guidelines that can help:
  1. Use technical analysis to pick important levels (support, resistance, previous high/lows, moving averages etc.) as these provide clear exit and entry points on a trade.
  2. Ensure that the stop gives your trade enough room to breathe and reflects your timeframe and typical volatility of each pair. See next section.
  3. Always pick your stop level first. Then use a calculator to determine the appropriate lot size for the position, based on the % of your account balance you wish to risk on the trade.
So far we have talked about price-based stops. There is another sort which is more of a fundamental stop, used alongside - not instead of - price stops. If either breaks you’re out.
For example if you stop understanding why a product is going up or down and your fundamental thesis has been confirmed wrong, get out. For example, if you are long because you think the central bank is turning hawkish and AUDUSD is going to play catch up with rates … then you hear dovish noises from the central bank and the bond yields retrace lower and back in line with the currency - close your AUDUSD position. You already know your thesis was wrong. No need to give away more money to the market.

Coming up in part II

EDIT: part II here
Letting stops breathe
When to change a stop
Entering and exiting winning positions
Risk:reward ratios
Risk-adjusted returns

Coming up in part III

Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II

Former investment bank FX trader: Risk management part II
Firstly, thanks for the overwhelming comments and feedback. Genuinely really appreciated. I am pleased 500+ of you find it useful.
If you didn't read the first post you can do so here: risk management part I. You'll need to do so in order to make sense of the topic.
As ever please comment/reply below with questions or feedback and I'll do my best to get back to you.
Part II
  • Letting stops breathe
  • When to change a stop
  • Entering and exiting winning positions
  • Risk:reward ratios
  • Risk-adjusted returns

Letting stops breathe

We talked earlier about giving a position enough room to breathe so it is not stopped out in day-to-day noise.
Let’s consider the chart below and imagine you had a trailing stop. It would be super painful to miss out on the wider move just because you left a stop that was too tight.

Imagine being long and stopped out on a meaningless retracement ... ouch!
One simple technique is simply to look at your chosen chart - let’s say daily bars. And then look at previous trends and use the measuring tool. Those generally look something like this and then you just click and drag to measure.
For example if we wanted to bet on a downtrend on the chart above we might look at the biggest retracement on the previous uptrend. That max drawdown was about 100 pips or just under 1%. So you’d want your stop to be able to withstand at least that.
If market conditions have changed - for example if CVIX has risen - and daily ranges are now higher you should incorporate that. If you know a big event is coming up you might think about that, too. The human brain is a remarkable tool and the power of the eye-ball method is not to be dismissed. This is how most discretionary traders do it.
There are also more analytical approaches.
Some look at the Average True Range (ATR). This attempts to capture the volatility of a pair, typically averaged over a number of sessions. It looks at three separate measures and takes the largest reading. Think of this as a moving average of how much a pair moves.
For example, below shows the daily move in EURUSD was around 60 pips before spiking to 140 pips in March. Conditions were clearly far more volatile in March. Accordingly, you would need to leave your stop further away in March and take a correspondingly smaller position size.

ATR is available on pretty much all charting systems
Professional traders tend to use standard deviation as a measure of volatility instead of ATR. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. Averages are useful but can be misleading when regimes switch (see above chart).
Once you have chosen a measure of volatility, stop distance can then be back-tested and optimised. For example does 2x ATR work best or 5x ATR for a given style and time horizon?
Discretionary traders may still eye-ball the ATR or standard deviation to get a feeling for how it has changed over time and what ‘normal’ feels like for a chosen study period - daily, weekly, monthly etc.

Reasons to change a stop

As a general rule you should be disciplined and not change your stops. Remember - losers average losers. This is really hard at first and we’re going to look at that in more detail later.
There are some good reasons to modify stops but they are rare.
One reason is if another risk management process demands you stop trading and close positions. We’ll look at this later. In that case just close out your positions at market and take the loss/gains as they are.
Another is event risk. If you have some big upcoming data like Non Farm Payrolls that you know can move the market +/- 150 pips and you have no edge going into the release then many traders will take off or scale down their positions. They’ll go back into the positions when the data is out and the market has quietened down after fifteen minutes or so. This is a matter of some debate - many traders consider it a coin toss and argue you win some and lose some and it all averages out.
Trailing stops can also be used to ‘lock in’ profits. We looked at those before. As the trade moves in your favour (say up if you are long) the stop loss ratchets with it. This means you may well end up ‘stopping out’ at a profit - as per the below example.

The mighty trailing stop loss order
It is perfectly reasonable to have your stop loss move in the direction of PNL. This is not exposing you to more risk than you originally were comfortable with. It is taking less and less risk as the trade moves in your favour. Trend-followers in particular love trailing stops.
One final question traders ask is what they should do if they get stopped out but still like the trade. Should they try the same trade again a day later for the same reasons? Nope. Look for a different trade rather than getting emotionally wed to the original idea.
Let’s say a particular stock looked cheap based on valuation metrics yesterday, you bought, it went down and you got stopped out. Well, it is going to look even better on those same metrics today. Maybe the market just doesn’t respect value at the moment and is driven by momentum. Wait it out.
Otherwise, why even have a stop in the first place?

Entering and exiting winning positions

Take profits are the opposite of stop losses. They are also resting orders, left with the broker, to automatically close your position if it reaches a certain price.
Imagine I’m long EURUSD at 1.1250. If it hits a previous high of 1.1400 (150 pips higher) I will leave a sell order to take profit and close the position.
The rookie mistake on take profits is to take profit too early. One should start from the assumption that you will win on no more than half of your trades. Therefore you will need to ensure that you win more on the ones that work than you lose on those that don’t.

Sad to say but incredibly common: retail traders often take profits way too early
This is going to be the exact opposite of what your emotions want you to do. We are going to look at that in the Psychology of Trading chapter.
Remember: let winners run. Just like stops you need to know in advance the level where you will close out at a profit. Then let the trade happen. Don’t override yourself and let emotions force you to take a small profit. A classic mistake to avoid.
The trader puts on a trade and it almost stops out before rebounding. As soon as it is slightly in the money they spook and cut out, instead of letting it run to their original take profit. Do not do this.

Entering positions with limit orders

That covers exiting a position but how about getting into one?
Take profits can also be left speculatively to enter a position. Sometimes referred to as “bids” (buy orders) or “offers” (sell orders). Imagine the price is 1.1250 and the recent low is 1.1205.
You might wish to leave a bid around 1.2010 to enter a long position, if the market reaches that price. This way you don’t need to sit at the computer and wait.
Again, typically traders will use tech analysis to identify attractive levels. Again - other traders will cluster with your orders. Just like the stop loss we need to bake that in.
So this time if we know everyone is going to buy around the recent low of 1.1205 we might leave the take profit bit a little bit above there at 1.1210 to ensure it gets done. Sure it costs 5 more pips but how mad would you be if the low was 1.1207 and then it rallied a hundred points and you didn’t have the trade on?!
There are two more methods that traders often use for entering a position.
Scaling in is one such technique. Let’s imagine that you think we are in a long-term bulltrend for AUDUSD but experiencing a brief retracement. You want to take a total position of 500,000 AUD and don’t have a strong view on the current price action.
You might therefore leave a series of five bids of 100,000. As the price moves lower each one gets hit. The nice thing about scaling in is it reduces pressure on you to pick the perfect level. Of course the risk is that not all your orders get hit before the price moves higher and you have to trade at-market.
Pyramiding is the second technique. Pyramiding is for take profits what a trailing stop loss is to regular stops. It is especially common for momentum traders.

Pyramiding into a position means buying more as it goes in your favour
Again let’s imagine we’re bullish AUDUSD and want to take a position of 500,000 AUD.
Here we add 100,000 when our first signal is reached. Then we add subsequent clips of 100,000 when the trade moves in our favour. We are waiting for confirmation that the move is correct.
Obviously this is quite nice as we humans love trading when it goes in our direction. However, the drawback is obvious: we haven’t had the full amount of risk on from the start of the trend.
You can see the attractions and drawbacks of both approaches. It is best to experiment and choose techniques that work for your own personal psychology as these will be the easiest for you to stick with and build a disciplined process around.

Risk:reward and win ratios

Be extremely skeptical of people who claim to win on 80% of trades. Most traders will win on roughly 50% of trades and lose on 50% of trades. This is why risk management is so important!
Once you start keeping a trading journal you’ll be able to see how the win/loss ratio looks for you. Until then, assume you’re typical and that every other trade will lose money.
If that is the case then you need to be sure you make more on the wins than you lose on the losses. You can see the effect of this below.

A combination of win % and risk:reward ratio determine if you are profitable
A typical rule of thumb is that a ratio of 1:3 works well for most traders.
That is, if you are prepared to risk 100 pips on your stop you should be setting a take profit at a level that would return you 300 pips.
One needn’t be religious about these numbers - 11 pips and 28 pips would be perfectly fine - but they are a guideline.
Again - you should still use technical analysis to find meaningful chart levels for both the stop and take profit. Don’t just blindly take your stop distance and do 3x the pips on the other side as your take profit. Use the ratio to set approximate targets and then look for a relevant resistance or support level in that kind of region.

Risk-adjusted returns

Not all returns are equal. Suppose you are examining the track record of two traders. Now, both have produced a return of 14% over the year. Not bad!
The first trader, however, made hundreds of small bets throughout the year and his cumulative PNL looked like the left image below.
The second trader made just one bet — he sold CADJPY at the start of the year — and his PNL looked like the right image below with lots of large drawdowns and volatility.
Would you rather have the first trading record or the second?
If you were investing money and betting on who would do well next year which would you choose? Of course all sensible people would choose the first trader. Yet if you look only at returns one cannot distinguish between the two. Both are up 14% at that point in time. This is where the Sharpe ratio helps .
A high Sharpe ratio indicates that a portfolio has better risk-adjusted performance. One cannot sensibly compare returns without considering the risk taken to earn that return.
If I can earn 80% of the return of another investor at only 50% of the risk then a rational investor should simply leverage me at 2x and enjoy 160% of the return at the same level of risk.
This is very important in the context of Execution Advisor algorithms (EAs) that are popular in the retail community. You must evaluate historic performance by its risk-adjusted return — not just the nominal return. Incidentally look at the Sharpe ratio of ones that have been live for a year or more ...
Otherwise an EA developer could produce two EAs: the first simply buys at 1000:1 leverage on January 1st ; and the second sells in the same manner. At the end of the year, one of them will be discarded and the other will look incredible. Its risk-adjusted return, however, would be abysmal and the odds of repeated success are similarly poor.

Sharpe ratio

The Sharpe ratio works like this:
  • It takes the average returns of your strategy;
  • It deducts from these the risk-free rate of return i.e. the rate anyone could have got by investing in US government bonds with very little risk;
  • It then divides this total return by its own volatility - the more smooth the return the higher and better the Sharpe, the more volatile the lower and worse the Sharpe.
For example, say the return last year was 15% with a volatility of 10% and US bonds are trading at 2%. That gives (15-2)/10 or a Sharpe ratio of 1.3. As a rule of thumb a Sharpe ratio of above 0.5 would be considered decent for a discretionary retail trader. Above 1 is excellent.
You don’t really need to know how to calculate Sharpe ratios. Good trading software will do this for you. It will either be available in the system by default or you can add a plug-in.

VAR

VAR is another useful measure to help with drawdowns. It stands for Value at Risk. Normally people will use 99% VAR (conservative) or 95% VAR (aggressive). Let’s say you’re long EURUSD and using 95% VAR. The system will look at the historic movement of EURUSD. It might spit out a number of -1.2%.

A 5% VAR of -1.2% tells you you should expect to lose 1.2% on 5% of days, whilst 95% of days should be better than that
This means it is expected that on 5 days out of 100 (hence the 95%) the portfolio will lose 1.2% or more. This can help you manage your capital by taking appropriately sized positions. Typically you would look at VAR across your portfolio of trades rather than trade by trade.
Sharpe ratios and VAR don’t give you the whole picture, though. Legendary fund manager, Howard Marks of Oaktree, notes that, while tools like VAR and Sharpe ratios are helpful and absolutely necessary, the best investors will also overlay their own judgment.
Investors can calculate risk metrics like VaR and Sharpe ratios (we use them at Oaktree; they’re the best tools we have), but they shouldn’t put too much faith in them. The bottom line for me is that risk management should be the responsibility of every participant in the investment process, applying experience, judgment and knowledge of the underlying investments.Howard Marks of Oaktree Capital
What he’s saying is don’t misplace your common sense. Do use these tools as they are helpful. However, you cannot fully rely on them. Both assume a normal distribution of returns. Whereas in real life you get “black swans” - events that should supposedly happen only once every thousand years but which actually seem to happen fairly often.
These outlier events are often referred to as “tail risk”. Don’t make the mistake of saying “well, the model said…” - overlay what the model is telling you with your own common sense and good judgment.

Coming up in part III

Available here
Squeezes and other risks
Market positioning
Bet correlation
Crap trades, timeouts and monthly limits

***
Disclaimer:This content is not investment advice and you should not place any reliance on it. The views expressed are the author's own and should not be attributed to any other person, including their employer.
submitted by getmrmarket to Forex [link] [comments]

Statistical Edge Trading

Statistical Edge Trading

Statistical Edge Trading

Have you ever traded with statistical edge? Our Allen trade talks about backing up the trading network and leveraging it from excellent newspapering. This is a stage that is undermined by many traders but fairly, it can be a crucial factor in boosting your trust and believing in your system. For those interested in this sort of research, you can check out the FTMO Statistical Application.
Trading with a Statistical edge
Although many traders back-test and record their trades to verify the trading system 's feasibility, monitoring and using the data to maximize both your stop loss and profit goal is a tremendous advantage. Two of the most critical pieces of data that I record when reporting trades is the drawdown and the benefit potential.

The drawdown, to be sure, is how far a trade goes against my place before it goes in my favour.

Whereas the benefit potential is the maximum distance from my entry which the trade moves in my favor. It isn't important and it's uncommon, in general, that I actually exit the trade. Yet definitely coming out at or as close as can be.
Firstly, I record my trades in two ways, using screenshots of the charts themselves where I annotate my entry, date, type of trade and all other relevant details related to my methodology, such as strength and weakness analysis , multiple time frame analysis and correlation. I also note on the map the drawdown and benefit potential of the trade.

Then I go through my Excel spreadsheet with main details. See "excel" below.

Excel spreadsheet with main details.

This includes the date, day, session, pair, time, route, entry price, closing price, type of setup, type of entry, type of exit, drawdown, potential for benefit and outcome. I then let excel do all the heavy lifting for myself as I can sort my trades numerous ways, by day, by session, by pair, by route, by type of set-up etc.

But where the really cool stuff is under the "Mind-blowing stats" tab where I have some of the above filterable statistics that will help me to optimize both my stop loss and my benefit goal.

Here is a summary of the specification.

When you use a risk percentage account to calculate your position size (as you should), so the lower the pause, the larger a position size you will trade in. The stop must, therefore, have a high likelihood of remaining. The vast majority of trading books, guides, videos, etc., advise that after a recent high / low swing, the stop will be many pips.

But my trade documents helped me to come up with a statistical advantage for my stoppage placement.

As can be seen in the "Drawdown" tag, Trading my Type 1 BO (breakout out) on GBPAUD, 79.55 percent of the time my drawdown was less than 25 pips, although it was just 81.82 percent at 30 pips and 84.09 percent at 35 pips.

Statistical Edge Trading
So when using a larger pause, an extra loss or 2, the advantage of having a greater size of the place and thereby netting more money makes the extra loss(s) inconsequential.

Furthermore, the income goal can also be optimized.

Looking at the "Profit Potential" connection and remaining on GBPAUD again for my Type 1 BO trades, we can easily see that almost 80 percent of the time, those trades get between 20 and 30 pips.

Statistical Edge Trading (b)
It is a perfect place to take off 1/2 of the spot and push the stop to flat. So we can let the rest of the half run to about 50 pips where 59.09 percent of the trades touch.

Obviously market conditions aren't always the same, so if you can recognise when they are, i.e. linked moves or strengthening or weakening other classes (commodity pairs or safe haven pairs), then you can make educated decisions about how far a trade will go.

Statistical Edge Trading (meme)

I hope this information 's helpful to you.

Eva " Forex " Canares .
Cheers and Profitable Trading to All.

About FTMO -
They fund forex traders. Just Pass their risk management rules and begin trading for their company. They'll provide you capital up to $300k USD for trading the financial markets. 70% of profits you keep and losses are covered by them. How does it work?
How to Become a Funded Forex ,Stocks or CryptoCurrency Trader?
submitted by Eva_Canares to FTMO_Forex_Trading [link] [comments]

Trading economic news

The majority of this sub is focused on technical analysis. I regularly ridicule such "tea leaf readers" and advocate for trading based on fundamentals and economic news instead, so I figured I should take the time to write up something on how exactly you can trade economic news releases.
This post is long as balls so I won't be upset if you get bored and go back to your drooping dick patterns or whatever.

How economic news is released

First, it helps to know how economic news is compiled and released. Let's take Initial Jobless Claims, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits around the United States from Sunday through Saturday. Initial in this context means the first claim for benefits made by an individual during a particular stretch of unemployment. The Initial Jobless Claims figure appears in the Department of Labor's Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, which compiles information from all of the per-state departments that report to the DOL during the week. A typical number is between 100k and 250k and it can vary quite significantly week-to-week.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report contains data that lags 5 days behind. For example, the Report issued on Thursday March 26th 2020 contained data about the week ending on Saturday March 21st 2020.
In the days leading up to the Report, financial companies will survey economists and run complicated mathematical models to forecast the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims figure. The results of surveyed experts is called the "consensus"; specific companies, experts, and websites will also provide their own forecasts. Different companies will release different consensuses. Usually they are pretty close (within 2-3k), but for last week's record-high Initial Jobless Claims the reported consensuses varied by up to 1M! In other words, there was essentially no consensus.
The Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is released each Thursday morning at exactly 8:30 AM ET. (On Thanksgiving the Report is released on Wednesday instead.) Media representatives gather at the Frances Perkins Building in Washington DC and are admitted to the "lockup" at 8:00 AM ET. In order to be admitted to the lockup you have to be a credentialed member of a media organization that has signed the DOL lockup agreement. The lockup room is small so there is a limited number of spots.
No phones are allowed. Reporters bring their laptops and connect to a local network; there is a master switch on the wall that prevents/enables Internet connectivity on this network. Once the doors are closed the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report is distributed, with a heading that announces it is "embargoed" (not to be released) prior to 8:30 AM. Reporters type up their analyses of the report, including extracting key figures like Initial Jobless Claims. They load their write-ups into their companies' software, which prepares to send it out as soon as Internet is enabled. At 8:30 AM the DOL representative in the room flips the wall switch and all of the laptops are connected to the Internet, releasing their write-ups to their companies and on to their companies' partners.
Many of those media companies have externally accessible APIs for distributing news. Media aggregators and squawk services (like RanSquawk and TradeTheNews) subscribe to all of these different APIs and then redistribute the key economic figures from the Report to their own subscribers within one second after Internet is enabled in the DOL lockup.
Some squawk services are text-based while others are audio-based. FinancialJuice.com provides a free audio squawk service; internally they have a paid subscription to a professional squawk service and they simply read out the latest headlines to their own listeners, subsidized by ads on the site. I've been using it for 4 months now and have been pretty happy. It usually lags behind the official release times by 1-2 seconds and occasionally they verbally flub the numbers or stutter and have to repeat, but you can't beat the price!
Important - I’m not affiliated with FinancialJuice and I’m not advocating that you use them over any other squawk. If you use them and they misspeak a number and you lose all your money don’t blame me. If anybody has any other free alternatives please share them!

How the news affects forex markets

Institutional forex traders subscribe to these squawk services and use custom software to consume the emerging data programmatically and then automatically initiate trades based on the perceived change to the fundamentals that the figures represent.
It's important to note that every institution will have "priced in" their own forecasted figures well in advance of an actual news release. Forecasts and consensuses all come out at different times in the days leading up to a news release, so by the time the news drops everybody is really only looking for an unexpected result. You can't really know what any given institution expects the value to be, but unless someone has inside information you can pretty much assume that the market has collectively priced in the experts' consensus. When the news comes out, institutions will trade based on the difference between the actual and their forecast.
Sometimes the news reflects a real change to the fundamentals with an economic effect that will change the demand for a currency, like an interest rate decision. However, in the case of the Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is a backwards-looking metric, trading is really just self-fulfilling speculation that market participants will buy dollars when unemployment is low and sell dollars when unemployment is high. Generally speaking, news that reflects a real economic shift has a bigger effect than news that only matters to speculators.
Massive and extremely fast news-based trades happen within tenths of a second on the ECNs on which institutional traders are participants. Over the next few seconds the resulting price changes trickle down to retail traders. Some economic news, like Non Farm Payroll Employment, has an effect that can last minutes to hours as "slow money" follows behind on the trend created by the "fast money". Other news, like Initial Jobless Claims, has a short impact that trails off within a couple minutes and is subsequently dwarfed by the usual pseudorandom movements in the market.
The bigger the difference between actual and consensus, the bigger the effect on any given currency pair. Since economic news releases generally relate to a single currency, the biggest and most easily predicted effects are seen on pairs where one currency is directly effected and the other is not affected at all. Personally I trade USD/JPY because the time difference between the US and Japan ensures that no news will be coming out of Japan at the same time that economic news is being released in the US.
Before deciding to trade any particular news release you should measure the historical correlation between the release (specifically, the difference between actual and consensus) and the resulting short-term change in the currency pair. Historical data for various news releases (along with historical consensus data) is readily available. You can pay to get it exported into Excel or whatever, or you can scroll through it for free on websites like TradingEconomics.com.
Let's look at two examples: Initial Jobless Claims and Non Farm Payroll Employment (NFP). I collected historical consensuses and actuals for these releases from January 2018 through the present, measured the "surprise" difference for each, and then correlated that to short-term changes in USD/JPY at the time of release using 5 second candles.
I omitted any releases that occurred simultaneously as another major release. For example, occasionally the monthly Initial Jobless Claims comes out at the exact same time as the monthly Balance of Trade figure, which is a more significant economic indicator and can be expected to dwarf the effect of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report.
USD/JPY correlation with Initial Jobless Claims (2018 - present)
USD/JPY correlation with Non Farm Payrolls (2018 - present)
The horizontal axes on these charts is the duration (in seconds) after the news release over which correlation was calculated. The vertical axis is the Pearson correlation coefficient: +1 means that the change in USD/JPY over that duration was perfectly linearly correlated to the "surprise" in the releases; -1 means that the change in USD/JPY was perfectly linearly correlated but in the opposite direction, and 0 means that there is no correlation at all.
For Initial Jobless Claims you can see that for the first 30 seconds USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the difference between consensus and actual jobless claims. That is, fewer-than-forecast jobless claims (fewer newly unemployed people than expected) strengthens the dollar and greater-than-forecast jobless claims (more newly unemployed people than expected) weakens the dollar. Correlation then trails off and changes to a moderate/weak positive correlation. I interpret this as algorithms "buying the dip" and vice versa, but I don't know for sure. From this chart it appears that you could profit by opening a trade for 15 seconds (duration with strongest correlation) that is long USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is lower than the consensus and short USD/JPY when Initial Jobless Claims is higher than expected.
The chart for Non Farm Payroll looks very different. Correlation is positive (higher-than-expected payrolls strengthen the dollar and lower-than-expected payrolls weaken the dollar) and peaks at around 45 seconds, then slowly decreases as time goes on. This implies that price changes due to NFP are quite significant relative to background noise and "stick" even as normal fluctuations pick back up.
I wanted to show an example of what the USD/JPY S5 chart looks like when an "uncontested" (no other major simultaneously news release) Initial Jobless Claims and NFP drops, but unfortunately my broker's charts only go back a week. (I can pull historical data going back years through the API but to make it into a pretty chart would be a bit of work.) If anybody can get a 5-second chart of USD/JPY at March 19, 2020, UTC 12:30 and/or at February 7, 2020, UTC 13:30 let me know and I'll add it here.

Backtesting

So without too much effort we determined that (1) USD/JPY is strongly negatively correlated with the Initial Jobless Claims figure for the first 15 seconds after the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (when no other major news is being released) and also that (2) USD/JPY is strongly positively correlated with the Non Farms Payroll figure for the first 45 seconds after the release of the Employment Situation report.
Before you can assume you can profit off the news you have to backtest and consider three important parameters.
Entry speed: How quickly can you realistically enter the trade? The correlation performed above was measured from the exact moment the news was released, but realistically if you've got your finger on the trigger and your ear to the squawk it will take a few seconds to hit "Buy" or "Sell" and confirm. If 90% of the price move happens in the first second you're SOL. For back-testing purposes I assume a 5 second delay. In practice I use custom software that opens a trade with one click, and I can reliably enter a trade within 2-3 seconds after the news drops, using the FinancialJuice free squawk.
Minimum surprise: Should you trade every release or can you do better by only trading those with a big enough "surprise" factor? Backtesting will tell you whether being more selective is better long-term or not.
Hold time: The optimal time to hold the trade is not necessarily the same as the time of maximum correlation. That's a good starting point but it's not necessarily the best number. Backtesting each possible hold time will let you find the best one.
The spread: When you're only holding a position open for 30 seconds, the spread will kill you. The correlations performed above used the midpoint price, but in reality you have to buy at the ask and sell at the bid. Brokers aren't stupid and the moment volume on the ECN jumps they will widen the spread for their retail customers. The only way to determine if the news-driven price movements reliably overcome the spread is to backtest.
Stops: Personally I don't use stops, neither take-profit nor stop-loss, since I'm automatically closing the trade after a fixed (and very short) amount of time. Additionally, brokers have a minimum stop distance; the profits from scalping the news are so slim that even the nearest stops they allow will generally not get triggered.
I backtested trading these two news releases (since 2018), using a 5 second entry delay, real historical spreads, and no stops, cycling through different "surprise" thresholds and hold times to find the combination that returns the highest net profit. It's important to maximize net profit, not expected value per trade, so you don't over-optimize and reduce the total number of trades taken to one single profitable trade. If you want to get fancy you can set up a custom metric that combines number of trades, expected value, and drawdown into a single score to be maximized.
For the Initial Jobless Claims figure I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 25 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 30 seconds elapsed) and only trade when the difference between consensus and actual is 7k or higher. That leads to 30 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... -0.0093 yen per unit per trade.
Yep, that's a loss of approx. $8.63 per lot.
Disappointing right? That's the spread and that's why you have to backtest. Even though the release of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report has a strong correlation with movement in USD/JPY, it's simply not something that a retail trader can profit from.
Let's turn to the NFP. There I found that the best combination is to hold trades open for 75 seconds (that is, open at 5 seconds elapsed and hold until 80 seconds elapsed) and trade every single NFP (no minimum "surprise" threshold). That leads to 20 trades taken since 2018 and an expected return of... drumroll please... +0.1306 yen per unit per trade.
That's a profit of approx. $121.25 per lot. Not bad for 75 seconds of work! That's a +6% ROI at 50x leverage.

Make it real

If you want to do this for realsies, you need to run these numbers for all of the major economic news releases. Markit Manufacturing PMI, Factory Orders MoM, Trade Balance, PPI MoM, Export and Import Prices, Michigan Consumer Sentiment, Retail Sales MoM, Industrial Production MoM, you get the idea. You keep a list of all of the releases you want to trade, when they are released, and the ideal hold time and "surprise" threshold. A few minutes before the prescribed release time you open up your broker's software, turn on your squawk, maybe jot a few notes about consensuses and model forecasts, and get your finger on the button. At the moment you hear the release you open the trade in the correct direction, hold it (without looking at the chart!) for the required amount of time, then close it and go on with your day.
Some benefits of trading this way: * Most major economic releases come out at either 8:30 AM ET or 10:00 AM ET, and then you're done for the day. * It's easily backtestable. You can look back at the numbers and see exactly what to expect your return to be. * It's fun! Packing your trading into 30 seconds and knowing that institutions are moving billions of dollars around as fast as they can based on the exact same news you just read is thrilling. * You can wow your friends by saying things like "The St. Louis Fed had some interesting remarks on consumer spending in the latest Beige Book." * No crayons involved.
Some downsides: * It's tricky to be fast enough without writing custom software. Some broker software is very slow and requires multiple dialog boxes before a position is opened, which won't cut it. * The profits are very slim, you're not going to impress your instagram followers to join your expensive trade copying service with your 30-second twice-weekly trades. * Any friends you might wow with your boring-ass economic talking points are themselves the most boring people in the world.
I hope you enjoyed this long as fuck post and you give trading economic news a try!
submitted by thicc_dads_club to Forex [link] [comments]

My experience with forex signals!


Hi my name is D and I have used multiple forex signal providers in the past and I would like to share my experience with the community in the hopes of warning others to wisely pick a signal provider and not burn their hard earned money like I did. ( I know this post is long but please give it a read before you start trading with any signal providers.)
So what made me start following signal providers? I had friends who were trading the forex market by themselves and making profits. I wanted to be like them however I was too impatient. I did not have the confidence to enter trades based on my own analysts as I was still in the learning stages but I still wanted to make some money from forex.
I started my search on instagram to find my first forex signal provider. It was then that I started my year long journey of subscribing to a signal provider and then switching to another one when the previous one was not profitable. (No. I did not switch provider right after a month as I believe every trader has bad months. I had multiple accounts to enter different signals from multiple providers.) After about a year, most of my accounts were down and I told myself I had to put a stop to this senseless burning of money.
I risk 2% for every trade no matter the size of my SL and TP. SL of 20 pips with TP of 40 pips? 2%. SL of 50 pips with TP of 100 pips? 2%. My lot size will just be smaller. Every profitable trader will agree that risk management is everything and is what keeps you in the game in the long run.
Over the many months I have collated the data and managed to pinpoint the exact reasons why my accounts were in a deficit even when the signal provider will show that it was a profitable month. There will be 5 reasons that I will be covering and I hope you take note of each one because if you see a signal provider doing one or more of these, it is a huge red flag that you will not be profitable if you follow it.
  1. Every post is showing off their lavish lifestyle and saying you should quit your 9-5 job
This is a huge huge red flag that the provider is not genuine. Real traders know that forex is not some get rich quick scheme and it takes months, even years of hardwork to start seeing results. They are trying to sell you a dream that you can get rich right away just by purchasing their signal package lol. Looking back, I realise that their analysts was total crap probably because they spent most of their time flexing on their gram. Genuine traders do not have to be such a douche about things as they know the value they offer and do not have to resort to such means to get attention.
  1. Bad risk reward ratio
Risk and reward ratio is everything. If your RR is 1:2. You only need to hit take profit 33% of the time to break even. 1:3? 25%, even better. Any percentage higher and you would be making money. Some signal providers only send trades with RR of maybe 1:1, some even lower than that. This means you have to hit take profit 50% of the time to break even. That is honestly pretty hard to do. So not only do you not make money, you end up losing.
  1. Setting multiple take profits
This is the biggest scam ever and how I was so stupid to not notice it sooner annoys me. Firstly, there is nothing wrong setting multiple take profits to secure some $$ first. However these providers do it in a way that makes it seem their week was profitable while in reality it was not. So let me show you how the maths works. I found an example of one of these trades from a provider I was once subscribed to. ( I have added in the number of pips from entry to save you from the calculations)
BUY XXXXXX NOW @ 1.59650 Sl: 1.59300 (35 pips) Tp1: 1.59822 (17.2 pips) Tp2: 1.60000 (35 pips) Tp3: 1.60200 (55 pips) Tp4: 1.60600 (95 pips) Tp5: 1.61000 (135 pips)
Wow! Looks good doesn't it. Nope it is actually not. Lets break it down. For calculation purposes assume that I risked 5% of my account for the entire trade. I would have to open 5 different positions, each risking 1% of my account. No now lets assume best case scenario and all the trades hit take profit, this is how much account growth I would have in total.
Tp1: 0.49% Tp2: 1% Tp3: 1.57% Tp4: 2.71% Tp5: 3.85%
Total of 9.62%!! Wow not too bad right almost a 1:2 RR. However this is rarely (almost never) the case. In reality it does not often hit TP 5, normally TP 3 and if you are lucky TP 4. In the case of TP 3 your RR would be negative. This factored in with not knowing when to set your SL to entry and having little clue when to actually take profit as TP 4 and TP 5 is unlikely you will be left with a huge drawdown.
So now for the best part. How forex signal providers make it seem that they are profitable. Lets say this trade hits SL, never mind its just a 35 pip loss, dont sweat it. Hits TP3 ... wow! 107 pip gain!!! (17.2+35+55) What a good trade! Yup you risked 5% for a 3% gain, nice one. Now you understand how people get scammed by those forex gurus posting huge pip gains and little losses, PIP GAIN DOES NOT EQUAL PROFITABILITY DO NOT BE FOOLED
  1. Unrealistic RR
Constant signals of RR of 1:4 and higher?? Sign me up please. Yup some providers do this and once the trade is entered they tell you price looks like it is about to retrace blah blah blah and ask you to close it at 1:0.5. A well known forex signal provider still does this but no name shall be mentioned. Worst still etc. you risked 100 pips for "400pips". And the provider celebrates that you caught at least 50 pips! 50 pips is a lot if your risk is maybe 15 pips, but you risked 100? No please that was terrible.
  1. Not caring that different currencies have different pip sizes
For example GBPAUD EURUSD have completely different pip sizes, great you are 60 pips up in GBPAUD and down 45 in EURUSD, still 15 pips in profit! Nope, lets assume you opened 1 lot for each trade, you will be up $410usd for GBPAUD and down $450usd for EURUSD. It is a totaly unnecessary gamble hoping that the trades with a bigger pip value will be up. One way to "counter" this to calculate it such that each pip value is the same. Lets say you want 1 pip to be 1USD, for GBPAUD it will be a 0.145 lot size, for EURUSD 0.1.
These are the reasons why a reliable signal provider is extremely hard to find and instead of earning some money quickly you will find yourself in a hole and in the cycle of changing signal providers. I personally feel it is better to spend your money learning forex and strategies from courses provided online and eventually trade by yourself. The key in forex is patience, having a good risk to reward ratio and full faith in your strategy.
If you have made it this far, I would like to thank you for taking your time to read my first reddit post. I hope you found it informative and please leave some feedback!
Help to share this post to prevent others from being scammed by forex”gurus”!!
submitted by FX_D4N to Forex [link] [comments]

Need some legitimate risk management advice

Brand new to forex, after messing around with stocks and ETFs for a year on robinhood.
In trying to learn about this strange new world, seemingly every article warns me that trading forex is the fastest route to poverty, that I'll lose every dime I have and that I'm better off buying lottery tickets, UNLESS I have a risk management plan.
That's all good and well, but it seems hard to find suggestions on how to actually manage my risk. So far what I have found is either unconvincing, or I just flat don't understand what is being explained. So I've landed here.
Reading the Forex FAQ, in this sub, the advice is to use a very small amount of capital when starting off, and practice live trading from there. If then recommends a formula to use in order to calculate risk, which seems like quite a bit of running calculations for every single trade that I make. Is it really the case that every Forex Trader that manages risk runs a series of calculations for each and every trade in order to figure out pip value and leverage amount, such matter and what have you?
Second problem, before even getting to the risk management section of this Subs FAQ, I'm told to read The Beginner's Guide on baby Pips. Babypips says that when you first start off trading you should not start small because then you will never be able to weather times of drawdown. They recommend something like an initial deposit of $20,000 or 50,000, and saying that if you don't have that much then build up your savings and come back the Forex when you have that to drop into the market. Are you kidding me?
My original plan before reading either of those guides was to deposit $300 and use something like a 10 to 1 or 20 to 1 Leverage.
The part that I'm hung up on which really baffles me and I need some help understanding is everywhere seems to say that I should only risk one or 2% of my account. I don't really understand what that means.
My trading app, OandA allows me to set default trade settings. One of them is trade size, which I can select an option "%Lev NAV" In all of my general Trading I have kept this number at 100, assuming that it is simply using 100% of my account for each trade.
I am also using a system in order to Define very specific entry points with a one-to-one risk reward ratio, setting a stop loss and take profit Target, usually between 9 and 60 Pips in size, depending on the instrument. Thus far, each trade that I have won usually amounts to a 3 to 8% change in the demo account value, which seems comprable to what I was experiencing with stocks and ETFs back on Robinhood. For the last 4 trades I've made, I'm up 15%.
Do I need to adjust this % Lev NAV down to 1% instead of 100? Or do I really need to download a pip value calculator app and make a determination after solving some arithmetic? I just can't seem to figure this out, and different sources use the same words interchangeably yet differently. When risking 1% of my account, does that include leverage, or not, in the trade? And if the most anyone recommends to risk in a trade is 1-2% then why use leverage at all? Won't the returns on 1% be so small as to be negligible? I don't seem to understand how it could possibly be Worth while to spend all that time trading... 1℅ of $300 is three bucks. As I understand it, that would allow me to buy 2 units of the EUUSD... there's no way that could be right, right?
Thanks for your patience and for reading this whole, chapter-length, question of a post.
I look forward to some clarity. I don't know how to switch to live trading, and the demo account does nothing to simulate leverage.
submitted by rm-rf_iniquity to Forex [link] [comments]

My experience with forex signals.

Hi my name is D and I have used multiple forex signal providers in the past and I would like to share my experience with the community in the hopes of warning others to wisely pick a signal provider and not burn their hard earned money like I did. ( I know this post is long but please give it a read before you start trading with any signal providers.)
So what made me start following signal providers? I had friends who were trading the forex market by themselves and making profits. I wanted to be like them however I was too impatient. I did not have the confidence to enter trades based on my own analysts as I was still in the learning stages but I still wanted to make some money from forex.
I started my search on instagram to find my first forex signal provider. It was then that I started my year long journey of subscribing to a signal provider and then switching to another one when the previous one was not profitable. (No. I did not switch provider right after a month as I believe every trader has bad months. I had multiple accounts to enter different signals from multiple providers.) After about a year, most of my accounts were down and I told myself I had to put a stop to this senseless burning of money. Today , I am proud to say that I am able to trade by myself profitably.
I risk 2% for every trade no matter the size of my SL and TP. SL of 20 pips with TP of 40 pips? 2%. SL of 50 pips with TP of 100 pips? 2%. My lot size will just be smaller. Every profitable trader will agree that risk management is everything and is what keeps you in the game in the long run.
Over the many months I have collated the data and managed to pinpoint the exact reasons why my accounts were in a deficit even when the signal provider will show that it was a profitable month. There will be 5 reasons that I will be covering and I hope you take note of each one because if you see a signal provider, it is a huge red flag that you will not be profitable if you follow it.
  1. Every post is showing off their lavish lifestyle and saying you should quit your 9-5 job
This is a huge huge red flag that the provider is not genuine. Real traders know that forex is not some get rich quick scheme and it takes months, even years of hardwork to start seeing results. They are trying to sell you a dream that you can get rich right away just by purchasing their signal package lol. Looking back, I realise that their analysts was total crap probably because they spent most of their time flexing on their gram. Genuine traders do not have to be such a douche about things as they know the value they offer and do not have to resort to such means to get attention.
  1. Bad risk reward ratio
Risk and reward ratio is everything. If your RR is 1:2. You only need to hit take profit 33% of the time to break even. 1:3? 25%, even better. Any percentage higher and you would be making money. Some signal providers only send trades with RR of maybe 1:1, some even lower than that. This means you have to hit take profit 50% of the time to break even. That is honestly pretty hard to do. So not only do you not make money, you end up losing.
  1. Setting multiple take profits
This is the biggest scam ever and how I was so stupid to not notice it sooner annoys me. Firstly, there is nothing wrong setting multiple take profits to secure some $$ first. However these providers do it in a way that makes it seem their week was profitable while in reality it was not. So let me show you how the maths works. I found an example of one of these trades from a provider I was once subscribed to. ( I have added in the number of pips from entry to save you from the calculations)
BUY XXXXXX NOW @ 1.59650 Sl: 1.59300 (35 pips) Tp1: 1.59822 (17.2 pips) Tp2: 1.60000 (35 pips) Tp3: 1.60200 (55 pips) Tp4: 1.60600 (95 pips) Tp5: 1.61000 (135 pips)
Wow! Looks good doesn't it. Nope it is actually not. Lets break it down. For calculation purposes assume that I risked 5% of my account for the entire trade. I would have to open 5 different positions, each risking 1% of my account. No now lets assume best case scenario and all the trades hit take profit, this is how much account growth I would have in total.
Tp1: 0.49% Tp2: 1% Tp3: 1.57% Tp4: 2.71% Tp5: 3.85%
Total of 9.62%!! Wow not too bad right almost a 1:2 RR. However this is rarely (almost ever) the case. In reality it does not often hit TP 5, normally TP 3 and if you are lucky TP 4. In the case of TP 3 your RR would be negative. This factored in with not knowing when to set your SL to entry and having little clue when to actually take profit as TP 4 and TP 5 is highly you will be left with a huge drawdown.
So now for the best part. How forex signal providers make it seem that they are profitable. Lets say this trade hits SL, never mind its just a 35 pip loss, dont sweat it. Hits TP3 ... wow! 107 pip gain!!! (17.2+35+55) What a good trade! Yup you risked 5% for a 3% gain, nice one. Now you understand how people get scammed by those forex gurus posting huge pip gains and little losses, PIP GAIN DOES NOT EQUAL PROFITABILITY DO NOT BE FOOLED
  1. Unrealistic RR
Constant signals of RR of 1:4 and higher?? Sign me up please. Yup some providers do this and once the trade is entered they tell you price looks like it is about to retrace blah blah blah and ask you to close it at 1:0.5. A well known forex signal provider still does this but no name shall be mentioned. Worst still etc. you risked 100 pips for "400pips". And the provider celebrates that you caught at least 50 pips! 50 pips is a lot if your risk is maybe 15 pips, but you risked 100? No please that was terrible.
  1. Not caring that different currencies have different pip sizes
For example GBPAUD EURUSD have completely different pip sizes, great you are 60 pips up in GBPAUD and down 45 in EURUSD, still 15 pips in profit! Nope, lets assume you opened 1 lot for each trade, you will be up $410usd for GBPAUD and down $450usd for EURUSD. It is a totaly unnecessary gamble hoping that the trades with a bigger pip value will be up. One way to "counter" this to calculate it such that each pip value is the same. Lets say you want 1 pip to be 1USD, for GBPAUD it will be a 0.145 lot size, for EURUSD 0.1.
These are the reasons why a reliable signal provider is extremely hard to find and instead of earning some money quickly you will find yourself in a hole and in the cycle of changing signal providers. I personally feel it is better to spend your money learning forex and strategies from courses provided online and eventually trade by yourself. The key in forex is patience, having a good risk to reward ratio and full faith in your strategy.
If you have made it this far, I would like to thank you for taking your time to read my first reddit post. I hope you found it informative and please leave some feedback!
submitted by FX_D4N to u/FX_D4N [link] [comments]

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If you guys could post other things that you've found useful too, that'd be great.
submitted by confluencefx to u/confluencefx [link] [comments]

Looking for suggestions to secure my family’s financial future. (~$100K to allocate, earning ~$50K/yr after taxes)

Edit: TL;DR - wall of text explaining my current finances, also asking if it’s the right time to enter the housing market (and how I might protect myself if I do so). I’m very cash-heavy and looking for ideas to diversify and grow into retirement, while ensuring my wife and kid are taken care of as well.
I realize there are many different options for how to save and plan for retirement. I think I’ll be just fine, but I also recognize that I have a lot of room for improvement. More than my own personal security, I want to provide as much as possible for my wife and child, both of whom I expect to outlive me by many years.
Now, I would never share this kind of detail with someone who knows who I am irl, hence the throwaway. As far as non-immediate family and acquaintances know, I’m living paycheck to paycheck, and I’d like to keep it that way.
Some background information about me:
I’m 35 years old, serving on active duty in the US military, and I’ve been in for a little over 12 years. I’ll be eligible to retire in about 8 years, and a rough conservative estimate is that I’ll receive about $2,000/month retirement pay starting in my early-mid 40s. The plan is to continue working after I separate until, well... until I’m ready to stop. Who knows when I’ll feel too old to work? 55? 65? 85???
The idea is to have the financial freedom to “officially” retire when I’m ready to so, no sooner and no later.
I’m married and I have one kiddo.
The wife makes a pretty decent paycheck atm, but she’ll soon be looking for work when we relocate to our next assignment. She has about $15K saved up right now.
I transferred my Post-911 GI bill to the kid to help offset the cost of college, and because Uncle Sam already so generously paid for my own education while I’ve been on active duty. It would be a waste to use the Bill for myself. Still, I’d like to set aside at least enough to match it or fill the gap up to a Doctorate (just in case the kid wants to pursue that level of education- no pressure lol). The GI Bill should cover a substantial part of the first 3 years, beginning sometime around the year 2030, but I could potentially be paying as much as half of the cost of a 4-year degree, and likely most of any education beyond that. Student loans aren’t all bad, but if I can put my kid through college without having to take out a loan, that would be fantastic.
So here’s where my finances sit right now:
I’ve calculated my compensations for the next year, and a conservative post-taxes estimate is that I’ll bring home about $50K. I don’t expect that figure to change whole lot over the next 4 years at least. I’m sure my wife will find gainful employment again after we move, but I don’t have enough information to forecast what her earnings will be, so I’ll simply leave it out for now.
I’ve done a lot of research into the cost of living at our next assignment, and I keep pretty solid records of spending. Based on our current expenses, and a conservative adjustment accounting fo the location change. I expect to reliably save an average of $1,800 per month out of my paycheck. That’s about a 40% decrease in annual savings compared to the last 2 years, during which time I received some special pay and a bonus.
My family budget plan for 2018 allows for about $29K in expenses total, which sounds tight for 2 adults and a child (and it is tight), but I also know it’s easily doable. I’ll adjust that target as we settle into the new place over the next several months, and go from there.
Whatever the wife is able to earn after we move, can go straight to the bottom line. I hesitate to forecast my capital gains from investments based on past performance, because it really has been an exceptional few years. Besides, I have yet to ever withdraw from my brokerage account. All dividends and gains from closing positions has gone right back into the pot.
Investments:
I have $46K in my brokerage account. Roughly 50/50 cash and stocks (individual stocks and ETFs/ETNs etc). Here’s my current portfolio if anyone cares: MO, AAPL, WFC, AMD, BND, IAU, WMT, ARNC, SPY, XIV- roughly equal parts for all of those. They’re a mixture of speculative short-term and div-yielding long-term holds. The half I have sitting in cash is so I can quickly sell calls/average-down/BTFD whenever the next market correction/crash/recession comes. I’m adding about $1K/month to this account via automatic deposit, which I typically split between cost-price-averaging into my longs, and into my cash reserve. I balance my holdings mostly by adding to underperforming positions when I expect a rebound, and not by selling stock unless I’ve held the shares for more than a year. I also try to keep my cash balance roughly equal to the market value of my stocks for the reasons mentioned above (and so I can act if I see an opportunity for a nice swing trade).
I have a little over $20K in an interest-earning checking/debit account. This is where the majority of my paycheck lands, and it’s where the majority of my bills come out.
I have $15K in USD hard cash. That’s more than I need, to be sure. It’s mostly leftovers from when I sold one car and bought another. I’ll eventually deposit it into a bank I suppose lol.
I also have $11K in another checking account which I feed through a credit card, paying the balance off monthly. I’ve been using the credit card to buy gas and pay for other travel expenses. I don’t need a cc to do that, but it’s an easy way to build up my credit score and it helps whenever I need to rent a car or something.
Then there’s the $6K sitting in a credit union Roth IRA I opened and sort of forgot about. It barely earns interest at all and I can’t for the life of me figure out how to use it.
I own exactly 1 BTC I bought on a whim this summer. It’s hard for me to watch, because it moves around so much in value. Worth about $4.5K today. Other assets I can think of off the top of my head:
~ $4K in physical gold/silver. I guess it’s my hedge against society collapse or whatever lol. I have one of those 50g combi-bars that can be broken into smaller ingots and then a bunch of 1oz silver coins.
~ $2K in various foreign currencies, mostly Sterling. This was left over from when I spent some time in the UK pre-brexit vote. I’m sort of bag-holding it until I can exchange it back to USD for less of a loss.
On top of that, I have exactly zero debt. If I were forced to liquidate all of my assets not mentioned above, I’m confident I could come up with another ~ $40K (That’s if you figure a >50% emergency sale depreciation... I have 4 cars, 3 of which would be considered collector’s items and about another $15K in Snap-on tools + all the other random shit I own)
I realize my money allocations don’t make a lot of sense right now, but I’m an aggressive saver and the cash tends to pile up quickly. That’s a nice problem to have I guess.
One concern I have, is seeing my un-invested money take a big hit from inflation. I’m also a little worried about my bullish stock portfolio, but my plan is to build/hold it for another 15 years or so, and then slowly increase my exposure to bonds as I get into my 40s and 50s. Assuming I can stick to my long-term investing strategy, I’m hoping to be able to ride out any major correction or recession.
A major goal of mine is to buy a house. Thanks to the military lifestyle living overseas and frequent relocations though, I haven’t really been in a position to do so. Soon I’ll be moving to a stateside base, but looking at the housing market there, I’m frankly scared to buy right now. Houses in the local area have nearly doubled in just a few years, and I’d rather not spend the next 2 decades upside down in a mortgage if things suddenly take a turn for the worse. The valuations just don’t make sense to me compared with the rental market, and I suspect many of the land owners are deeply indebted in a market that feels pretty hot imo.
So there you have it. My personal finances in a nutshell. Not that I’m in financial trouble or anything, but I would love to hear any suggestions or pointers you smarties might have to offer.
I suppose some specific questions might include:
To recap my holdings:
Any/all ideas and criticisms are welcome.
Thanks for reading!
submitted by yet_another_throwy to personalfinance [link] [comments]

Hidden Scalping Code Download Making $4,000 $7,000 $9,000 everyday

How Does Hidden Scalping Code Works?
Hidden Scalping Code is the proven and authentic scalping indicator that could realistically change your life. This program helps you to choose between three different trading styles. This software is depending on how you prefer to trade, you can choose Aggressive, Medium or Safe trading style. You can simply open it again and continue from where you left off without having any signals disappear or change. This program is the result of years of trading experience with trial and error and a lot of sleepless nights. It relies on a super smart revolutionary mathematical algorithm to predict the price movements before they even happen. It doesn’t matter whether you have trading experience or not. All of the difficult calculations are done automatically inside the code – just buy or sell when it tells you. This is all you need to know to use this software. This scalping indicator can be used on M1 and M5. It combines a lot of the most profitable trading systems with numerous trading algorithms and powerful scalping tricks that make you a ton of winning trades.
VISIT HIDDEN SCALPING CODE OFFICIAL WEBSITE
now we understand the most significant aspects of Currency Forex Robotic; it is a mainly grid hedge trading robot, functioning 24/5, uses the M30 timeframe and the pairs additionally working yet not officially supported are AUDJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY and EURJPY. We see plenty of trading pairs here, is it possible?
They started guide is somewhat not much information but their member area does absolutely fill this gap. I see a lot of stuff in there included extra downloads, extra tutorials and updated set files frequently as they promise. In addition, as you’ll see, they provide 4 extra daily trading signals on the EA official website. I don’t use the forecasting signals so cannot have any comments about the signals.
More couple of realities relating to this EA should be known, I will attempt to list them immediately. It is most likely not an excellent theory to manually configure each pair SL and TP although you can. The EA gets its set ups upgraded from the stifles after authorized gain access to configuring each pair preset values; each setting has its own stop loss and take profit so I cannot list all in here. Just an example, the stop loss ranges from 180 pips on EURUSD and GBPUSD to as high as 300 on, and so on. The stop loss is rarely reached, though – by deeper analyzing the backrests. It’s additionally an ability to choose gains early prior to the choose take profit target is hit by its positions. I am quite happy with the way it open extra positions when the market move in not favorable direction. Some secret ways in here that I cannot understand that lower the drawdown (and risk) when the robot scales in to positions.
The strategy itself is pretty complicated that you have to be careful to read their instructions or using set files on official site only; a few signs which are provided with Metatrader are affected in an ingenious approach, so the entry signals are identified. It’s retry iterations for opening/closing orders, signifying a particular amount of expertise with automatic trading in live. Instead the DLL programming is sometimes a hurdle for EAs working on multiple pairs with the identical DLL, in this situation it appears to be entirely threaded safe.
Hidden Scalping Code is the best forex trading solution to avoid trading during any uncertain market periods. Hidden Scalping Code does it’s works This will help you sell better on the foreign exchange market and make more money. This program will analyze all the graphics for you every second! So, you get the best trend of the pair and time frame, at any time you want. Hidden Scalping Code Free Download This Hidden Scalping Code software is less expensive compared to other forex software. You need a computer with an internet connection. All setup information is provided in the Hidden Scalping Code user’s guide. Hidden Scalping Code Software Reviews 
Hidden Scalping Code: This is a special trend indicator that is available only on the official website. Absolutely no repaint! It is designed to work on M15, M30, H1, H4 and D1 timeframes. Works for all currency pairs, but best on: EUUSD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, EUJPY, GBP/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/CAD.
"Hidden Scalping Code" can also inform you of every new signal via review, pop up sound or push alerts. It's very convinient. The special informer that is implemented in this indicator shows trend strength, time left until next candle, last generated signal etc. This will make your trading even more simple and profitable!
"Hidden Scalping Code" is designed for MT4 platforms. It is NOT an EA or Robot, but a powerful buy/sell signal arrows scalping indicator software. You get smart signals, use them and make profit. I highly recommend you try "Hidden Scalping Code" right now
I have just downloaded the Brand New "Hidden Scalping Code" It's absolutely fantastic! The signals are VERY fast! I already opened two trades and both are currently over 150 pips profit.
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submitted by abcxyz01 to hiddenscalpingcode [link] [comments]

Curve Fitting And You

Hey folks,
I like taking advantage of algorithmic optimizers to find technical strategies with superior statistical edges, but of course their use is not so simple. I don't want to fall victim to curve fitting.
I'd like to know if anyone on /forex has a set of guidelines to use with optimizing to figure out whether they have a good system or have merely put on the blinders. There are lots of links online, but something as tricky as this is good to discuss openly.
Rules that I've been using:
  1. Large sample size. A run of 100 trades in a given period is more reliable than a run of 40.
  2. Maximum drawdown. An abnormally low drawdown together with small sample size (which often results in an absurd profit factor) just screams "curve fitting".
  3. Re-test with new time period. Run the optimizer for time period N, then test again for a period of at least 2N, or a period that doesn't overlap with the original period. When I do test with overlap, I've seen apparently good strategies waffle around aimlessly, and then miraculously pick up the pace right where I first began the optimization. What a coincidence!
  4. Stability across parameters. If one run provides great results, but the very next run with one of your parameters slightly tweaked totally fails, then you've probably found a fragile little island is a sea of troubles. If large swaths of continuous parameters provide similarly good results across the board, it is more likely that the strategy itself is valid rather than any given set of parameters providing the illusion of a statistical edge.
I'm still very new to technical optimization, so I'd appreciate hearing about your methodology for avoiding curve fitting. In some way, all technical analysis is vulnerable to curve fitting. How do we properly tweak our algorithms to the market, without tweaking them beyond real-world usefulness?
PS. There was an article about using a calculation of trade efficiency to avoid curve fitting, because it should be invariant to the parameters. Unfortunately I've lost this article in a hard drive crash. It is very relevant to this topic: does anyone know what I'm referring to?
submitted by substandardgaussian to Forex [link] [comments]

Forex Drawdown Explained - The REAL TRUTH About Drawdowns! #Forex Trading - Floating - Saldo Flutuante, DD, Drawdown, Rebaixamento Forex Trading: Controlling Your Risk During A Drawdown How to Calculate Drawdown for Traders - YouTube VsCap: How to calculate maximum drawdown in excel - YouTube

Learn how to calculate forex Robot Drawdown Calculation on your EA and cents account advantage and brokerage comparison BLOG.FORXPIPSPLUS How to Calculate Drawdown in Forex. Published by Scand.Ex on October 22, 2020. Drawdown is a common principle used to measure the volatility of an investment. Drawdown is heavily relied on by all types of investors, including forex traders, to demonstrate the potential risk associated with an investment. A forex trader would typically apply the drawdown function to analyse the performance of ... How is Forex drawdown calculated? The formula to calculate the drawdown percentage is the Drawdown Value (in dollars) over the Account Balance, converted into percentage by multiplying the value by 100%. We shall now discuss 2 possible scenarios, the first with a large drawdown and the second with a smaller drawdown. In the first scenario, you have an account balance of $50,000. The value of ... Drawdown in Forex is a fundamental metric that traders use to gage the amount of lost capital incurred from losing trades. Knowledgeable traders use this information in order to calculate how likely their trading systems are to survive over the short and long run. This is what traders call a drawdown. A drawdown is the reduction of one’s capital after a series of losing trades. This is normally calculated by getting the difference between a relative peak in capital minus a relative trough. Traders normally note this down as a percentage of their trading account. Losing Streak. In trading, we are always looking for an EDGE. That is the whole reason why ... Drawdown in pips is easy to calculate. Open Price vs Historical High or Low Price ( must be intra-day and not the daily close price). A better way would be using the High/low on Daily Candles if the position is held for more than 1 day. If the trade is open and closed within 1 day, you will need to open your chart and see for yourself. Myfxbook makes this extremely easy when the trading ... In order to get your maximum drawdown, calculate your running percent profit and loss total, then use the Excel MIN function to get the maximum drawdown, which is the most negative number. Even if there is currently no new high watermark, but your current drawdown is greater than previous maximum drawdowns, then your current drawdown can be used as your maximum drawdown. Here's a video to show ...

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Forex Drawdown Explained - The REAL TRUTH About Drawdowns!

Video on how to calculate maximum drawdown in excel. INVEST WITH PHIL: https://1percentfxcapital.com READ THE MANIFESTO — https://1percentfxmanifesto.com JOIN THE ACADEMY — https://1percentfxacademy.com Hey guys, today I will show you the real ... Participem do grupo Forex Com Tiago Lacerda no Facebook: ... How to Calculate Drawdown for Traders - Duration: 7:39. Mark Ursell 2,339 views. 7:39 ★ Curso Forex Completo Gratis en Español ... This video shows how to calculate drawdown in a trading strategy using Excel. Drawdown is a fundamental metric for all traders because when we are losing mon... FOREX TRADING: A received a question on Facebook from a "struggling trader" requesting some advice on how to stay confident during the dreaded drawdown period that every trader goes through. in ...

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